In a pivotal defeat for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the NDP’s leader, Jagmeet Singh tore up his supply and confidence agreement with the Liberal party. This agreement may sound like any boring piece of paper, but it allowed Justin Trudeau to lead the longest-serving minority government in nearly 100 years. Here’s how it works.
Of the 338 seats in Canada’s parliament, the Liberal party holds 154 while the NDP holds 24. Since neither reached a majority in the last election, both parties agreed to collaborate by creating a supply-and-confidence agreement. This agreement means just as it sounds. While the Liberals would supply bills of interest to the NDP, in return, they promised to keep the Liberals in power if the Conservatives ever made a motion of no-confidence. Throughout this agreement, the Liberals and NDP accomplished legislation relating to sick leave, pharmacare, housing, and Indigenous issues.
On Wednesday, September 4, Singh announced he was ending this agreement. “The fact is, the Liberals are too weak, too selfish, and too beholden to corporate interests to fight for people,” he said, “They cannot stop the Conservatives. But we can.” While this decision happened amidst his frustration with the Liberal party, the punch was landed at a time when the Liberals were down and the NDP could capitalize. If they disassociate themselves from the Liberal party and are victorious in Monday’s by-elections, it would only increase their chances for the next federal election.
In Singh’s statement, he alluded to just that, saying, “In the next federal election, Canadians will choose between Pierre Poilievre’s callous cuts or hope. Hope that when we stand united, we win. That Canada’s middle class will once again thrive together.” His choice of words suggests that this is the beginning of a new era for the NDP. An era that brings back memories to 2011 when the NDP leader, Jack Layton, formed the official opposition party, holding a record 103 seats in the House of Commons.
Even though he may not show it, Conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre, should be elated by this news. All signs point to a major Conservative victory, and the faster an election can happen, the better. Now that the NDP is no longer obligated to support the Liberal party during a vote of no-confidence, Poilievre plans to bring a motion for one “at the earliest possible opportunity.” This means that if a majority of MPs vote no confidence in the current government, Trudeau will either have to resign or trigger a federal election, likely this fall.
For some, the idea of an election thankfully serves as a chance to bring about a change in government. For others, another election unfortunately invalidates the instability in Canadian politics. For the past three years, the Liberal party has been rocked with controversies while the Conservatives and NDP never fail to dissent and create further division. What this does not tackle though, is voter burnout. Canadians have experienced everything from a pandemic to wildfires since the past election in 2021. With numerous stressors affecting Canadians, an election can sound reassuring to some and terrifying to others.
One thing guaranteed is that with Singh ending this agreement, a big change is likely. Whether that be the Conservatives forming a majority government, or the NDP becoming the most powerful left-wing government in Canada, the next election will set an important precedent for years to come in Canada’s electoral system.
