Mixed signals of China’s environmental status raises questions in a critical period
On Sept. 25, 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping presented China’s first emissions reduction target, aiming to cut greenhouse gas emissions by seven to ten per cent from its peak by 2035. This announcement was delivered to world leaders gathered in New York City for the UN General Assembly through a pre-recorded video and included mentions of renewable energy expansions. As China is one of the world’s largest carbon emitters, this announcement left many climate analysts and foreign officials doubtful that Beijing is doing enough to reduce the rising global temperature to the maximum allocation of 1.5°C as set out in the Paris Climate Agreements.
The BBC reported this as the first time China has committed to an absolute target to cut its emissions, while China Briefing called the step significant, even if the scale is modest compared to the size of its recent emissions of 15.8 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent. In the video, President Xi pledged to reduce economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7-10 per cent below their peak levels while “striving to do better.” Xi paired this announcement with a separate commitment to drastically expand clean energy development. Xi said Beijing would increase its wind and solar farming capacity six times as much as from their 2020 levels and additionally raise the share of domestic consumption of non-fossil fuel energy to over 30 per cent.
Despite the pledges made by President Xi regarding China’s future climate policy, international receptions were mixed. Wopke Hoekstra, the European Commissioner for Climate, claims this target is underwhelming and insufficient, saying a single digit target would do little to reduce global warming, while China remains one of the world’s largest sources of carbon emissions. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimated that China would need to reduce their emissions by 30 per cent to be consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement. The EU highlighted the political context of Xi’s address, with the U.S. recently pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement, eliminating fuel economy standards and caps on methane emissions, but maintained their deduction: to see any progress China would need larger cuts to their emissions.
Researchers at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies point to two factors in assessing any global impact with regard to lowering China’s carbon emissions. Firstly, they claim China’s emissions may have peaked or are reaching their height, because of structural shifts in the domestic economy and previous investment in renewable energy, which would make the seven to 10 per cent figure less daunting in practice. Secondly, Xi’s pledges of “economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions” did not extend to questions about which gases are covered, how removals of forestry sinks will be counted, and the baseline year for the peak. These details could be central to whether the target meaningfully encourages China’s path to carbon neutrality by 2060.
The China Global Television Network frame the announcement as proof of China’s leadership in the clean energy transition, pointing to China’s recent success in building huge renewable energy distributors and its large manufacturing role in electric vehicles. They also said China overshot some previous renewable targets years ahead of schedule, a track record that analysts say Beijing can leverage to exceed its stated 2035 renewables expansion. Still, building renewable capacity at the scale President Xi describes will require sustained investment, grid upgrades, and curbs on coal-fired generation in regions where demand and industrial activity remain high.
As the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in November approaches, China’s pledge to reduce emissions remains extremely relevant. In the coming months many climate experts will be scrutinizing China’s implementing guidelines, like the rules for calculating emissions, and domestic policy measures that will convert a percentage into a real decline in emissions. For now, the pledge remains to be a first for the planet’s biggest emitter and whether it becomes a significant step in the direction of decarbonization remains to be seen.