20 days before the United States presidential election, The Argosy’s Opinions Editor Jaya Condran and I had the privilege of interviewing Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, David Shribman. A contributing writer for The Globe and Mail and the Executive Editor of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Shribman was at Mt. A to speak to the Sackville community about the upcoming U.S. election as part of the President’s Speaker Series. Mine and Condran’s interview was broken into two parts. While Condran focused on electoral consolidation, my questions surrounded campaign attitudes and the future balance of power.
Shribman began by emphasizing that this will be a “turnout election”: “[Trump and Harris] are so fixed in the public’s minds that they are not in the business right now of changing [them].” He explained that “they are, however, in the business of mobilizing the people who are already with them, or who have been with them for some time.” Trump’s rallies are an example of this. “There isn’t anybody in that crowd who went to see him and said, ‘well, I’m not quite sure about his housing policy.’ The people are there because they want to see him, because they already like him, and because it is a show,” said Shribman.
Former president Donald Trump’s rhetoric takes up hours of airspace. Even though it is divisive, Shribman touched on its lack of importance. He offered a quote by journalist Salena Zito, who said not to take Trump literally, but to take him seriously. “I think that is the case,” said Shribman. “He says all these bombastic things, […] but it does not matter, [because] people who hate him will only hate him more, [and] the people who love him will tolerate it or only love him more.”
The division we see this election may also be the deciding factor for heavy Democratic turnout. Shribman said, “Donald Trump is the greatest turnout machine that the Democrats have ever had.” Whether this is because of his pro-life beliefs or stances on immigration, Trump’s highly opinionated and controversial views may boost support from his opposition. “[Harris] is not Trump and that is the most effective thing that some Democrats or some people can say about her,” he said. “This is not an economic election, […] it is not an election about Gaza, it is an election about Donald Trump.”
The second reason for Democratic turnout may be due to factors related to the Harris campaign. Shribman emphasized that support for Harris is a mix of her not being Donald Trump and presenting a unifying campaign. “She gave a good convention speech, […] [came] across as warm and approachable, […] and she has done a very good job in coalescing the Democrats back to even, where they were not even with Joe Biden.”
Seven swing states and their 93 electoral votes will decide the result of this election. Of these, domestic migration and labour union support are the reasons for Shribman highlighting both North Carolina and Michigan. For North Carolina, Shribman differentiated it from southern states due to its high population of northern American migrants making it “more of an amalgam state than is South Carolina for example, or Arkansas or Mississippi.” For Michigan, he touched upon its highly concentrated Jewish and Muslim vote, as well as support for the labour movement. The main importance, Shribman stressed in this election is “who votes, not what the candidates say.”
Along with the presidency come the US congressional elections. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 Senate seats are up for grabs to determine the balance of power for the next two years. Arguably, these will be the most important elections in the United States because of their ability to get bills passed. The current Congress has been notably ineffective compared to other years because of the Republican Party’s control of the House and the Democratic Party’s control of the Senate. Shribman raised the importance of what he calls the “great American tradition,” which is the idea that change is difficult for a reason in the United States. “The constitution makes [change] hard,” said Shribman. “If you cover Congress, as I have done, there are so many steps to get anything passed it is a miracle that anything gets done.”
He also agrees with the likelihood that both chambers flip (where Democrats win the House and Republicans win the Senate): “I think these votes are both independent of the Presidential election because of ticket-splitting. Americans don’t consciously do this, but the result is a divided government.” Ticket splitting references that in swing House and Senate races like Washington, New York, and Montana, some people may vote for a Republican senator, but a Democratic representative and president. If this happens, a split Congress is likely. Because of several levels of government in the “great American tradition,” Shribman said that “both sides will be happy to have a split government because they don’t want the other side to have full control.” He added the probability of “at least two more years, maybe four, of a split government where very little can be accomplished, and maybe that is what the public wants.”
Five days remain until election day. While polls hold power to help understand the shape of an election, the obvious but true telling factor comes from waiting until every last vote is counted. As we saw in 2016 and 2020, it does not matter who the polls believe will win and by how close. In these final days, expect to hear predictions commenting on how close this election will be and updating future predictions based on the results. As Shribman said, “Pollsters spend a lot of time trying to figure out […] what errors they make, only to make different errors this time, […] and so, I think now it is time that we forget and wait out the next [five] days.”
