There are not many elections you can win with a 24 percent approval rating. In a post-COVID era, the Canadian political sphere has shifted dramatically. Disapproval and controversy over how Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Government managed the 2022 trucker convoy across Canada, coupled with the rise of misinformation surrounding COVID-19 saw Trudeau taking the brunt of the cultural and political backlash. The weight of these controversies only have been burdened by other allegations and antagonistic messaging since 2022. As a result, Trudeau and the Liberal party have yet to recover in the eyes of the public.
Since early 2022, the Liberals have continuously trailed to the Conservative party, headed by Pierre Poilievre, with margins only continuously improving for the Conservatives. By utilising divisive rhetoric, similar to that of the American Republican Party headed by former president Donald Trump, Poilievre has been able to drag the Tories to a predicted large majority in the coming election. By directly targeting Liberal policies, the Conservatives have been able to consolidate a gargantuan base of support nationally. Through this messaging, the Tories have leaned into disparaging LGBTQ2SI+ people and their rights, instead of choosing to accept and try to include them within their politics. In addition to continuously disparaging political rivals, such as Trudeau and anything to do with the LPC. However, as the federal sect of the Conservative party (CPC) continues to dominate, the effects of year-long Conservative provincial control is emerging in New Brunswick, as the provincial election is set for October 21, 2024. Blaine Higgs, the incumbent Progressive Conservative Premier, is polling at a loss to the New Brunswick Liberals.
In late August 2024, at a Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick Convention, Blaine Higgs commented on the upcoming race, saying “I don’t think there will ever be a time where there’ll be an election with a clearer definition. […] The distinction will be very clear.” As Higgs won the NB 2020 snap provincial election, the Progressive Conservatives have slowly morphed into a new kind of party. In 2023, Higgs divided not only the population, but his own cabinet, over Policy 713. The policy targeted transgender youth within New Brunswick public schools, based on non-existent claims made by concerned parents. Moreover, right-wing policy pushes that align with conservative Christianity have seen support and advocacy from the pro-life Campaign Life Coalition, which sent out over 160,000 flyers in support of the anti-transgender rhetoric pushed by Higgs against queer youth. Higgs has made various promises, such as cutting the provincial tax rate, although the balanced provincial budget the plan relies on is now running at a deficit. Moreover, after six years in office, Higgs has made a lot of poor cases for himself. As a result of the Conservative government’s change to its LGBTQ policy within schools, Higgs has now found himself inadvertently aligned with the Campaign Life Coalition. Their message was in support of Higgs’ attempt to keep inclusive policy surrounding queer youth out of education. These moves have not only isolated PC voters but has caused cabinet shuffles and resignations.
According to 338 Canada, a polling aggregator, the New Brunswick Liberal party is at a projected 42%(+/-5) popular vote standing, however, the Conservatives and Liberals are neck and neck within projected seats, with 23 each. As the Progressive Conservative tumble, voters have demonstrated they remember the choices of their government that once tried to represent them. Ineptitude surrounding the housing crisis, in addition to prioritising private development over public wellbeing simply stings. Coupled with reluctance to improve access to reproductive rights across the province, in addition to a promise to not open any more safe-injection sites if re-elected, is a simple policy fix. These issues surrounding reproductive health and addiction do not have to be polarised. Their continual erosion is the consequence of terrible public policy that puts the voices of few over the safety and wellbeing of the overall population of New Brunswick. If the purpose and intentions of progressive, inclusive, policies are not misconstrued to cause panic and division, these issues can be popular. Conservative messaging surrounding once bipartisan, universally accepted beliefs – such as queer acceptance – has been weaponized by Poilievre’s federal conservatives. The unabashed far-right rhetoric pushed by the CPC has seeped within provincial Conservative spheres.
As the Tories across Canada continue to lean into reactionary right-wing rhetoric and policy, the Liberals and NDP have a chance. However, the missteps of the federal Liberals may be too grand — coupled with their lack of effective messaging and reluctance of Trudeau to abandon his ship. Yet, as October 21 approaches in New Brunswick, the Liberals have one of their only chances to make a gain, pretty much anywhere. If the Liberals or NDP want to grab the Canadian public in the same way the CPC has, they have all the evidence in their face of why Canadians might want to rethink hopping on Poilievre’s bandwagon. However, it is up to them if they want to use it.
If you are a Canadian citizen, you should check if you are registered to vote. The New Brunswick Provincial election takes place October 21, 2024, with early voting options available. To learn more, please consult the resources listed below.
Register To Vote / Check Voter Registration Canada: https://ereg.elections.ca/en/ereg/index
Elections New Brunswick Information: https://www.electionsnb.ca/content/enb/en.html
